The final elimination playdate of the 2017 Philippine Cup on Wednesday holds the key to the final placings of the 8 teams that will move into the next round.
The first game pits surprising Star Hotshots against the unpredictable Mahindra Floodbuster while the Alaska Aces take on the struggling Rain or Shine Elasto Painters in the main event.
Let’s cut to the chase and get to the meat of the matter.
I. In case of victories by Star and Alaska
Both teams will end up tied at number 2 with identical 7-4 records, but by virtue of the winner-over-the-other rule the Aces will assume the 2nd seed and the Hotshots fall to 3rd.
Star will take on Phoenix in a best-of-three affair. The Aces will face the Gin Kings armed with a twice-to-beat advantage.
Rain or Shine will drop to number 8 and end up in a tie with Blackwater with a 5-6 record. The two teams will figure in a knock-out match to determine the 8th and last spot and the right to face top-seed San Miguel in the next round.
TNT (#4) and GlobalPort (#5) will figure in their own race-to-two-wins series.
II. In case of victories by Mahindra and Rain or Shine
Seven teams will be tied at 6-5. Blackwater will drop to number 9 and join Meralco, NLEX and Mahindra in Boracay Cup. Star will finish at number 2 due to superior quotient and will face Brgy. Ginebra with a twice-to-beat advantage.
The Beermen, needing to win only once, will tangle with the Fuel Masters (#1 vs #8).
Rain or Shine will take on Alaska while GlobalPort will face TNT in best-of three affairs.
III. In case of victories by Star and Rain or Shine
Star will grab the number 2 spot and a Manila Clasico quarterfinal series will unfold with the Hotshots holding a twice-to-beat advantage. Phoenix will take on defending champion San Miguel with the Beermen needing to win just once to advance to the semis.
Alaska will face Rain or Shine and TNT will tangle with GlobalPort, both in a race-to-two-wins affair.
Blackwater will join batchmate Mahindra and sister teams NLEX and Meralco in vacation mode.
IV. In case of victories by Mahindra and Alaska
Alaska will secure the number 2 spot and will take on Phoenix with a twice-to-beat advantage.
Rain or Shine (5-6) will fall to number 8 and will figure in a knockout match with Blackwater for the right to have the unenviable task of facing San Miguel with a twice-to-win disadvantage.
Star will face sister team Brgy. Ginebra while TNT will take on GlobalPort in best-of-three showdowns.
The loser of the Rain or Shine vs Blackwater match will end up at #9, Mahindra #10, Meralco #11 and NLEX dead last at #12.
Let’s draw conclusions from the 4 scenarios.
TNT will face GlobalPort in a best-of-three series regardless of who wins on Wednesday.
There’s a 75% chance we’ll see a Manila Clasico in the quarters. And two out of the three will have the Hotshots with a twice-to-beat advantage.
The other possible quarterfinal match for the Hotshots would be against the Fuel Masters in a best-of-three affair.
For Brgy. Ginebra, the other possible match would be against Alaska, with the Gin Kings in a twice-to-win disadvantage.
There’s a 50% chance of Phoenix facing San Miguel and the other 50% with the Beermen facing the winner of the Blackwater vs Rain or Shine knockout match. Either way, the Beermen will have twice-to-beat advantage.
For the Aces, there’s a 50% chance that they’d meet Rain of Shine in a best-of-three affair. 25% chance of meeting Phoenix and a similar 25% chance of facing Brgy. Ginebra, both with twice-to-win advantages.
For Rain or Shine, there’s a 50% chance of facing Alaska in a best-of-three series. The other 50% is a knockout match with Blackwater for the 8th spot and a quarters date with San Miguel. – Alvin Fadul
Here is a ‘statistical explanation’ from PBA head statistician Fidel Mangonon as posted on his twitter account.